Reports 2024

The new European Commission, which began its 2024-2029 term on December 1, 2024, must address a range of challenges, such as restoring EU competitiveness and ensuring security. This requires a comprehensive approach that touches upon the foundations of the EU's economic and social policies. Industrial policy needs modern financial solutions, protection from disruptions to the single market, and support for production capacities. This calls for an active trade policy that expands market access, diversifies sources of raw materials, and simultaneously protects the domestic market from unfair competition. On the internal market, efforts to eliminate barriers in services must be accelerated, and regulatory harmonization between countries must be ensured—this is particularly crucial for the telecommunications sector. These and other policies require adequate funding, which means a bold EU budget that can support diverse directions to safeguard the European economic model. The Polish Economic Institute's report, "What Policies for a Secure and Competitive Europe? 10 Ideas for the European Commission," identifies 10 priority areas for the new European Commission along with recommended actions.

The use of artificial intelligence (AI) will have a significant impact on the labour market. Some tasks will be simplified, while others will disappear entirely. Among the 20 occupational groups most vulnerable to the impact of AI are specialist positions, including finance professionals, lawyers, certain government officials, administrative specialists, and programmers. These jobs employ 3.68 million Poles, of whom 2.16 million are women, and 1.53 million are men. Poles are divided in their views on the effects of AI on the labour market: 25.8% believe that AI will positively impact job numbers, while 33.4% think it will have a negative effect. These conclusions come from a report by the Polish Economic Institute (PIE) titled "AI on the Polish labour market."

The European Union is looking for ways to diversify the supply of critical raw materials. Latin America, where 25 out of 34 raw materials identified as critical by the European Commission are mined, can play an important role. It is home to 56.7 % of the world's lithium reserves and 94.1 % of the world's niobium reserves. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, the combined total of planned and active mining investment projects in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru amounted to USD 178 billion. The region's political and economic instability remains a challenge to plans to increase mining, with 28 % of the world's documented environmental conflicts with local communities, among other factors. These are the conclusions of the Polish Economic Institute's report Latin America's critical raw materials and the economic security of the European Union

The Polish economy is emerging from a slowdown. GDP growth in 2024 will be 2.6 percent, and in 2025 – 4.1 percent. Inflation in those years will be 3.6 percent and 4.6 percent, respectively. The unemployment rate will remain one of the lowest in the entire European Union. By the end of 2024, the registered unemployment rate will be 5.3 percent. Also, wage growth in 2024 will maintain a double-digit pace – averaging 12.3 percent. These conclusions come from the “PEI Economic Review: Spring 2024” report published by the Polish Economic Institute.

20 years ago, Poland and nine other countries joined the European Union. According to an analysis by the Polish Economic Institute, the GDP per capita of the eight countries in the region is 27 % higher than it would have been had they not joined the EU. The figure for Poland is 40 %. Central European countries are beneficiaries of European funds. In total, they have received EUR 355 billion. The greatest benefits, however, have come primarily from the single market: the inflow of foreign direct investment, the cumulative value of which has increased 21-fold, and integration into global supply chains. The value added generated in ICT services doubled between 2008 and 2021. The region needs to continue to close the development gap, primarily in increasing innovation and improving quality of life and education. These are the main conclusions in the Polish Economic Institute's report “The Big Bang Enlargement. 20 Years of Central Europe’s Membership in the EU”

The Polish Economic Institute analysed the predictions of energy sector experts from 23 EU Member States about meeting the targets of EU climate and energy policy. The least concern is the ban on the sale of combustion passenger cars before 2035 - more than 70 % of those surveyed believe this is achievable. At the same time, only 44 % of the experts surveyed believe that the EU will have achieved climate neutrality by 2050. The biggest doubt is about meeting the target for the share of RES in the EU's energy mix in 2030 - 56 % of them believed that it would not be possible to meet this target by that date. Fewer than one in three experts (29 %) from Central Europe were confident that their country would meet the CO2 reduction targets set out in the Effort Sharing Regulation (ESR). The most controversial topics the European experts disagree on are the electrification of district heating and the future of nuclear power. These are the main conclusions of the Polish Economic Institute's report entitled "Challenges of the Fit For 55 package: EU expert feedback on the targets of the energy transition."

65% of war refugees who came to Poland from Ukraine are in employment. The employment rate is currently the highest among Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries. Research conducted by the Polish Economic Institute shows that Ukrainian refugees face various challenges in the Polish labour market and sometimes experience unequal treatment. In several of the industries surveyed that do not require specialised qualifications, employers respond less frequently to CVs sent by Ukrainian women compared to those sent by Polish women. The difference of nearly 30 % is a signal of potential discrimination at the initial stage of recruitment, according to the latest report by the Polish Economic Institute 'Refugees from Ukraine in the Polish labour market: opportunities and obstacles'.