Opublikowano: 22/04/2025

The tariff policy announced by Donald Trump will impact the Polish economy, although the effects will be moderate. While the United States is only Poland’s 8th largest trading partner, it is the second-largest recipient of Polish value added after Germany—57% of the $23 billion of Polish value added consumed in the U.S. reaches the country indirectly through other nations. Overall, 2.6% of Poland’s GDP is generated thanks to U.S. demand for Polish value added. If the U.S. imposes 25% tariffs on imports from the EU, Poland’s GDP could fall by 0.38–0.43%. These are the findings of a report by the Polish Economic Institute titled “Potential consequences of changes in U.S. trade policy for the Polish economy.”

Mining, transportation, and automotive sectors will be most affected

Depending on the U.S. trade policy scenario, various sectors will experience different levels of export decline. Excluding the severe trade war scenario, the sectors with the largest expected export drops are:

• Mining and extraction (3–4% decrease), likely due to the use of coking coal in steel production, which is targeted by tariffs.
• Transportation services (1.5% decrease), due to a general reduction in international trade.
• Automotive sector (1.5% decrease).

In the most heavily impacted sector—basic metal production—exports are projected to fall by 1%.

Under severe trade war scenarios, nearly all sectors in Poland would experience export declines between 0.5% and 4%. The most affected sectors (with export declines over 1.5%) include:

• Transportation services
• Manufacture of computers, electronic, and optical products
• Basic metal production
• Machinery and equipment manufacturing
• Electrical equipment production

Diversifying export markets will be one way to mitigate the potential economic costs of U.S. tariffs on Polish exports.

Goals of U.S. trade policy remain unclear

The U.S. administration appears to be pursuing multiple objectives, which may reduce the effectiveness of its actions and negatively affect both the U.S. and global economies. The three main goals often cited are reducing the trade deficit, redirecting government revenue from taxes to tariffs, strengthening U.S. negotiating power with trade partners. A common additional goal is enhancing the competitiveness of the U.S. industrial sector.

“Trying to achieve any of these goals with tariffs is problematic. For instance, the U.S. trade deficit with the EU cannot be permanently reduced through tariffs alone because macroeconomic imbalances play a key role. Similarly, expecting tariffs to meaningfully increase federal revenue is unrealistic. In 2024, tariff revenue totaled $77 billion, which accounted for just 1.6% of U.S. federal revenue and 0.3% of GDP. Even if a 50% tariff were imposed on all U.S. imports, potential revenue of $780 billion would cover just 16% of the U.S. budget and fall short of the $1.8 trillion deficit. In reality, revenues would likely be much lower due to the economic slowdown caused by sharply rising import costs and reduced import value,”
notes Marek Wąsiński, head of the global economy team at PIE.

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The Polish Economic Institute is a public economic think tank with a history dating back to 1928. Its main research areas include macroeconomics, energy and climate, the global economy, economic foresight, digital economy, sustainable development, and behavioral economics. The Institute prepares reports, analyses, and policy recommendations on key areas of the Polish economy and society, taking into account the international context.

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