Key numbers:

16% of GDP – value of the aid that Ukraine received over four years after the annexation of Crimea from the World Bank, OECD and IMF

5-23% of GDP – total support from these organisations for Iraq and Mali after the military conflicts there

Once the fighting ends, Ukraine will need support from the global community to rebuild its economy. International organisations such as the World Bank, the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) should get involved in the assistance. These organisation support countries hit by armed conflict – in recent years, they have provided Iraq and Mali with post-war assistance.

So far, the scale of assistance for countries hit by war has ranged from 5% to 20% of their post-war GDP. In the first four years after the end of the civil war in Iraq, which took place in 2014-2017, the World Bank sent it over USD 1.3 billion – the equivalent of 0.8% of GDP. The funds were spent on development projects; subsidies and loans were allocated to social support for families, the expansion of the power grid and on water supply. OECD aid amounted to USD 7 billion, a further 4% of GDP. The World Bank and OECD also got involved in helping Mali, which had experienced civil war. The scale of aid during the four years after the conflict amounted to USD 0.6 billion and USD 2.9 billion, respectively – the equivalent of 3.6% and 19% of the country’s GDP. World Bank projects for Mali included building roads, support for the poorest people and youth education programmes. Both countries also received aid from the IMF in the form of loans, but their scale was small (USD 0.1 billion for Mali and USD 0.5 billion for Iraq).

International institutions also helped Ukraine after the annexation of Crimea. In 2014-2017, the World Bank and OECD provided grants and loans worth USD 5 billion and USD 4 billion, respectively – in total, the equivalent of 8% of Ukraine’s GDP. Projects financed by the World Bank in recent years include support for agriculture, institutional reform, fighting corruption, road development and energy security. The IMF also offered Ukraine support, providing it with over USD 9 billion (8% of GDP) in loans.

Subsidies and loans for Ukraine will exceed the amount spent in 2014-2015 due to the unprecedented scale of losses caused by the Russian invasion. OECD, World Bank and IMF assistance will be significantly higher than the USD 8 billion provided in 2015. The World Bank has already pledged to prepare a USD 3 billion support package for Ukraine. However, the nature of the programmes that Ukraine is offered will change; they will be similar to the support for Iraq and Mali.

Ukraine will also need help from the EU. Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki has proposed the launch of an EUR 100 billion investment package worth. It would mainly serve to rebuild infrastructure and could be financed by European financial institutions, such as the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development or the European Investment Bank.