Gospodarka światowa

The European Union is looking for ways to diversify the supply of critical raw materials. Latin America, where 25 out of 34 raw materials identified as critical by the European Commission are mined, can play an important role. It is home to 56.7 % of the world's lithium reserves and 94.1 % of the world's niobium reserves. Between 2022 and 2023 alone, the combined total of planned and active mining investment projects in Argentina, Brazil, Chile and Peru amounted to USD 178 billion. The region's political and economic instability remains a challenge to plans to increase mining, with 28 % of the world's documented environmental conflicts with local communities, among other factors. These are the conclusions of the Polish Economic Institute's report Latin America's critical raw materials and the economic security of the European Union

The economic recovery in 2021 contributed to the consolidation of dependence on supplies from China and Russia by increasing imports from there. In 2018-2021, China's share in material consumption in the EU-27 grew by nearly 1%. At the same time, the process of moving production to other (cheaper or safer) countries, as well as bringing it home, has been visible in recent years. In 2021, FDI flows to developed countries increased significantly, compared to flows to developing countries. The total value of greenfield transactions grew by 15%, but fell by 50% in the case of China. FDI to developed countries rose by 134% in 2021 (y/y), according to the Polish Economic Institute’s report The new face of global trade. Are we dealing with reshoring?, which analyses the impact of the pandemic and the war in Ukraine on global production chains.

Germany has been one of Poland’s key trading partners for years. In 2018, nearly 10 per cent of Polish GDP relied on trade with Poland’s western neighbour, including more than 7 per cent generated by the demand from final customers over the Oder and another 2.6 per cent resulting from German exports of Polish value added. In its report entitled ‘Współpraca handlowo-inwestycyjna Polski z Niemcami’ (Poland’s trade and investment cooperation with Germany), the Polish Economic Institute analyses the trade balance of the two countries with regard to GDP generation and job creation, trade structure and mutual cooperation in the form of direct investment.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been accelerating changes in the existing model of the functioning of the world economy. Supply chain resilience is gaining in importance. The EU is facing a major challenge of reducing its dependence. At present, 76 per cent of oil and 68 per cent of gas imports in the EU are from non-OECD countries. Simultaneously, for as many as 11 of the 30 raw materials critical to the energy transition, the EU’s dependence on imports exceeds 85 per cent. More than 7 per cent of EU imports are products with a high degree of dependence on deliveries from outside the EU-27, including over 4 per cent among key manufacturing ecosystems such as electronics, energy and health. The EU is also twice as dependent as the US on demand in non-OECD countries. Therefore, changes in the current supply chain seem necessary – according to the Polish Economic Institute’s report entitled ‘The decade of economic resilience. From offshoring to partial friendshoring’.

The world economy has become three polar in the past 20 years. Three, rather than two, powers account for half of GDP in purchasing power parity (PPP). China joined the United States and the European Union, which we treat as a single economic entity in this study.