In 2018, the CIT gap was PLN 22 billion, 35 per cent less than in 2014. At the same time, CIT accounted for 5 per cent of State revenue in Poland, distinctly below the EU average of 7 per cent. A vital problem is the shifting of profits to tax havens – in 2018 alone transnational corporations artificially transferred from Poland profits of PLN 17 billion, which translated into CIT revenue foregone exceeding PLN 3 billion. It is only possible to stop that process by taking firm action at the European Union level. We need more intra-EU solidarity with regard to taxes; otherwise, we can forget about accelerating the reduction of disparities between European regions – as argued by analysts of the Polish Economic Institute in the report entitled ‘The CIT gap in Poland in 2014–2018’.

Piotr Arak, “The Brussels Times”: The International Monetary Fund predicts that global public debt will reach its highest level in history with 101% of GDP in 2020. Economists expect it to be higher even than the debt mountain after WW2.

Aleksander Szpor, “CE Energy News”: Poland faces a serious challenge when it comes to climate neutrality by 2050, mainly due to its coal-based energy system and limited alternative options. The most coal-dependent country in CEE is struggling to transform in an economically and politically secure manner.

In its report entitled ‘Trade routes after the COVID-19 pandemic’, the Polish Economic Institute presented four scenarios for a new pattern of global trade routes resulting from potential relocation of part of production from China to other countries, likely to push down China’s GDP by as much as 1.64 percent. In the version most favourable for the EU Member States, the greatest beneficiary of delocation would be Poland (USD 8.3 billion), followed by Germany (USD 8.3 billion), the Czech Republic (USD 4.9 billion) and France (USD 4.3 billion). What other changes in China’s future role in global supply chains could be expected?

The rivalry between the United States and China is a battle of two global systems: the Bretton Woods monetary system and China’s New Silk Road initiative, the germ of a parallel system. The coronavirus pandemic has accelerated changes in the two systems and increased friction between them. Both players – the USA and China – attach particular importance to the Three Seas region, i.e. the belt of 12 European countries: from Estonia to Poland to Bulgaria. The Three Seas region and the European Union will have to face the rivalry of the two global players using the so-called sticky power. And today’s struggle is not only for influence over financial and monetary systems or the civilisational identity – the West versus Confucian values – but also for the control of 5G infrastructure and the international image in the context of responsibility for the pandemic outbreak – as follows from the report of the Polish Economic Institute entitled ‘Belt and Road meets Three Seas. Chinese and American sticky power in the context of Polish security and other strategic interests’.

Piotr Arak, “Visegrad Insight”: Taxing may be the most important outcome of the COVID-19 crisis. More protectionism, new value chains, quantitative easing and new taxes through the EU could be the new normal of 2020.

In mid-February 2020, the Economic and Trade Agreement (ETA) between the United States and China entered into force. It constituted the first stage of a broader trade deal between the two countries (the so-called Phase One Deal). In practice, the agreement did not significantly reduce the level of protectionism in US–China trade. Additional tariffs still cover around two-thirds of US imports from China and 80% of Chinese imports from the United States. The Polish Economic Institute report “The effects of the US–China trade war on international supply chains” attempts to assess the impact of the trade war to date on changes in global trade, with particular attention to the European Union and Poland. In the face of the coronavirus pandemic, the struggle between the two powers for global dominance may take an unexpected turn.

Piotr Arak, “Emerging Europe”: The coronavirus has reshaped how we think about the economy and society. The governments of most countries have had to put their economies into hibernation to protect people from a disease: something which we have not encountered before.

Aleksander Szpor i Jan Strzelecki, “Emerging Europe”: Since December 2019, when US sanctions were imposed on companies involved in the construction of the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline, the finalisation of the project has been frozen.

The coronavirus pandemic has led to restrictions on the activity of 3 billion people worldwide. The International Labour Organization estimates that up to 25 million people globally may lose their jobs. Consumption is expected to fall by 33%, and each month of economic hibernation has a negative impact on global GDP of 2 percentage points. Massive stimulus packages will shield the global economy from complete catastrophe, but they will certainly not preserve its existing structure. Analysts at the Polish Economic Institute (PIE), in the report “Pandenomics. A set of fiscal and monetary tools in times of crisis”, summarize the first stage of the global fight against the pandemic and propose 10 recommendations to ensure growth during the recovery phase.